Other ongoing areas of engagement include trade, energy, security, racial equality, and the environment. After narrowly winning a second-round runoff election in October , President Dilma Rousseff of the center-left Workers Party was inaugurated to a second four-year term on January 1, Economic conditions in Brazil have deteriorated significantly in recent years, and Rousseff is now struggling to keep her campaign promises to protect social welfare programs and maintain low unemployment while simultaneously implementing austerity measures that many economists argue are necessary to attract investment and ultimately boost growth.
The economy contracted by an estimated 3. The th Congress has approved two legislative measures that will influence U. In the Consolidated Appropriations Act, P. Two other bills introduced in are designed to pressure Brazil to amend its constitution to allow the extradition of Brazilian nationals; H. Brazil is recognized by the Obama Administration as a "major global player" and an "indispensable partner" on issues ranging from international development to climate change.
Administration officials have often highlighted Brazil's status as a multicultural democracy, referring to the country as a natural partner that shares values and goals with the United States. Bilateral ties have been strained from time to time as the countries' occasionally divergent national interests and independent foreign policies have led to disagreements.
Although international investors have advocated for a more rapid economic adjustment, much of Rousseff's political base is opposed to the policy shift. Brazil's deep economic recession has weakened Rousseff's political standing, which was already fragile as a result of a major corruption scandal that has implicated numerous officials in the governing coalition.
Some nominally allied legislators have distanced themselves from Rousseff, opposing her administration's austerity measures and other key portions of her policy agenda. Moreover, the president of Brazil's Chamber of Deputies has initiated impeachment proceedings against the president. Figure 1. Map of Brazil. Brazil also benefitted from favorable international economic conditions in the decade prior to her election, which, combined with the policies of her predecessors, facilitated stronger economic growth.
Economic conditions began to deteriorate early in Rousseff's term, however, and her administration struggled throughout her first four years in office to address weak growth and popular discontent. Nevertheless, Rousseff was narrowly reelected. Now over a year into her second term, Rousseff is struggling to keep her campaign promises to protect social welfare programs and maintain low unemployment while simultaneously implementing austerity measures that many economists maintain are necessary to turn around Brazil's economy.
Rousseff's political standing has weakened significantly as the economy has contracted and revelations about a major corruption scandal have come to light. Her public approval rating has drastically declined, and she has lost the support of many nominally allied legislators, some of whom have joined with the political opposition to initiate impeachment proceedings against her. Brazil occupies almost half of the continent of South America and is the fifth most populous country in the world with Brazil abolished slavery in and became a republic in , but economic and political power remained concentrated in the hands of large rural landowners and the vast majority of Brazilians remained outside the political system.
Vargas also increased the state's role in the economy and pursued import-substitution industrialization. Brazil enjoyed multiparty democracy between and , but experienced polarization and instability as economic growth slowed, inflation increased, and populism gained strength. The Brazilian military seized power in a coup, ushering in two decades of authoritarian rule Although repressive, the Brazilian military was not as brutal as those in some other South American countries.
It nominally allowed the judiciary and Congress to function during its tenure, but stifled representative democracy and civic action, carefully preserving its influence during one of the most protracted transitions to democracy to occur in Latin America.
According to Brazil's National Truth Commission, at least people were killed or "disappeared" by the dictatorship. Brazil restored civilian rule in , and a national constituent assembly, elected in , promulgated a new constitution in The constitution, as amended, establishes a liberal democracy with a strong president, a bicameral Congress consisting of the member Chamber of Deputies and the member Senate, and an independent judiciary.
Power is somewhat decentralized under the country's federal structure, which includes 26 states, a federal district, and some 5, municipalities. Brazil experienced economic recession and political uncertainty during the first decade after the political transition. Numerous efforts to control runaway inflation failed, and two elected presidents did not complete their terms; one died before taking office, and the other was impeached on corruption charges.
Brazil's economic and political situation began to stabilize under President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, who was elected to serve two terms between and The plan consisted of a new currency the real pegged to the U. Cardoso continued the economic reform push after taking office, privatizing some state-owned enterprises and gradually opening the Brazilian economy to foreign trade and investment. These policies contributed to stronger growth rates for a few years, but macroeconomic stability remained elusive.
Following the East Asian and Russian financial crises, concerns about Brazil's overvalued exchange rate and substantial fiscal deficits sparked a massive capital flight. Although Cardoso's popularity declined as Brazil struggled with these economic challenges, most analysts credit him with laying the foundation for the macroeconomic stability that Brazil has experienced since he left office.
In the aftermath of the financial crises, Brazil adopted the three main pillars of its macroeconomic policy: a floating exchange rate, a primary budget surplus, 8 and an inflation-targeting monetary policy.
Cardoso also established a series of targeted income transfer programs designed to alleviate poverty. These economic and social policies have been maintained and built upon by subsequent administrations. During his first term, Lula maintained the market-oriented economic policies associated with his predecessor.
He tightly controlled expenditures, raised the primary budget surplus, and granted additional autonomy to the Central Bank. At the same time, he placed greater emphasis on reducing poverty, reorganizing and expanding some of the social programs that had been initiated under Cardoso.
The most high-profile program, Bolsa Familia "Family Grant" , provides monthly cash transfers to poor families that ensure their children attend school and receive proper medical care. Lula's agenda stalled toward the end of his first term as several top PT officials were implicated in a vote-buying scheme. The scandal ultimately led to the convictions of 25 people—including Lula's former chief of staff—in After primarily focusing on maintaining economic stability during his first term, Lula established a larger role for the Brazilian state in economic development during his second term.
He expanded Bolsa Familia and launched new social welfare programs. Analysts have credited the administration's timely policy response for mitigating the effects of the crisis and facilitating recovery; 11 the Brazilian economy contracted by 0. Although some observers criticized Lula for not doing more to advance certain policy reforms, 13 most give him credit for improving social inclusion in Brazil. Between and , the percentage of the population living in poverty fell from President Dilma Rousseff of the center-left PT was inaugurated to a second four-year term on January 1, Although she was originally elected in after promising to maintain the popular socioeconomic policies of President Lula, Rousseff struggled to address the country's deteriorating economic situation during her first term.
She also had to contend with popular unrest, including mass demonstrations in June , during which more than 1 million citizens took to the streets to express frustration with the stagnation in their living standards, call for better quality public services, and denounce corruption. She held off two strong challengers and was narrowly reelected with Now over a year into her second term, Rousseff continues to face significant economic and political challenges.
On the economic front, Rousseff is struggling to keep her campaign promises to protect social welfare programs and maintain low unemployment while implementing austerity measures that many economists assert are necessary to encourage investment and ultimately boost growth see " Economic Challenges ".
Rousseff's political standing has declined precipitously as economic conditions have continued to deteriorate and a major corruption scandal has implicated numerous officials in the governing coalition.
Rousseff has lost the support of many nominally allied legislators, some of whom have joined with the political opposition to initiate impeachment proceedings against her see " Political Challenges ". Brazil experienced a rapid economic expansion between and , driven by a boom in international demand—particularly from China—for Brazilian commodities such as meat, sugar, soybeans, iron ore, and crude oil.
The initial expansion was reinforced by domestic consumption from Brazil's fast-growing middle class, which now accounts for a majority of the population. During her first term, Rousseff sought to offset the weaker international economic situation by stimulating domestic consumption and protecting domestic industries.
Her administration implemented a series of short-term tax cuts and provided subsidized credit through state banks. Although those measures initially helped keep unemployment near historic lows, they also eroded the country's primary budget surplus and helped push inflation to the upper edge of the government's targeted boundary 4. To mitigate the increase in inflation, the Rousseff Administration held down fuel and electricity prices, which, along with other interventions in the economy, deterred investment.
Economic growth continued to slow, falling from 3. Facing further economic deceleration and the threat of Brazil losing its investment grade credit rating, President Rousseff began implementing a major shift in economic policy following her reelection. She appointed a new economic team to implement a series of austerity measures designed to stabilize the country's debt levels, encourage investment, and ultimately boost growth. The fiscal adjustment has included partial budget freezes, reductions in the number and size of government ministries, restrictions on certain pension and unemployment benefits, and reversals of several of the tax cuts granted during her first term.
The Rousseff Administration has also allowed fuel and electricity prices to rise. At the same time, the Brazilian Central Bank has steadily raised the benchmark interest rate with the aim of bringing inflation back down to the 4.
Nevertheless, economic conditions in Brazil have continued to deteriorate. Many economists and international investors maintain that Brazil must implement more far-reaching economic adjustments. The IMF, for example, maintains that Brazil needs to quickly restore a fiscal surplus and put public debt on a downward path; bring inflation back down to the target range; and address structural impediments to growth, such as infrastructure bottlenecks, a relatively closed economy, and a complex and burdensome tax system.
The constitution established a liberal democracy with a strong president, a bicameral congress consisting of the member chamber of deputies and the member senate, and an independent judiciary. Power is somewhat decentralized under the country's federal structure, which includes 26 states, a federal district, and some 5, municipalities. Brazil experienced economic recession and political uncertainty during the first decade after its political transition.
Numerous efforts to control runaway inflation failed, and two elected presidents did not complete their terms; one died before taking office, and the other was impeached on corruption charges and resigned.
Initially elected on the success of the anti-inflation Real Plan that he implemented as finance minister under President Itamar Franco , Cardoso ushered in a series of market-oriented economic reforms. His administration privatized some state-owned enterprises, gradually opened the economy to foreign trade and investment, and adopted the three main pillars of Brazil's macroeconomic policy: a floating exchange rate, a primary budget surplus, and an inflation-targeting monetary policy.
Nevertheless, the Brazilian state maintained an influential role in the economy. The Cardoso Administration's economic reforms and a surge in international demand particularly from China for Brazilian commodities—such as oil, iron, and soybeans—fostered a period of strong economic growth in Brazil during the first decade of the 21 st century. Although the poverty rate initially continued to decline under the PT-led administration of President Dilma Rousseff —reaching a low of 8.
After nearly two decades of relative stability, Brazil has struggled with a series of crises since The country fell into a deep recession in late , due to a decline in global commodity prices and the Rousseff Administration's economic mismanagement. The deep recession also has hindered federal, state, and local government efforts to address serious challenges such as crime and violence.
A record-high 64, Brazilians were killed in , and the country's homicide rate of A series of corruption scandals have further discredited the country's political establishment. The so-called Car Wash Lava Jato investigation, launched in , has implicated politicians from across the political spectrum and many prominent business executives.
Petrobras , colluded with construction firms to fix contract bidding processes. The firms then provided kickbacks to Petrobras officials and politicians in the ruling coalition. Parallel investigations have discovered similar practices throughout the public sector, with businesses providing bribes and illegal campaign donations in exchange for contracts or other favorable government treatment.
The scandals sapped President Rousseff's political support, contributing to her controversial impeachment and removal from office in August Several other high-level politicians, including former President Lula, have been convicted and face potentially lengthy prison sentences see the text box, below.
The inability of Brazil's political leadership to overcome these crises has undermined Brazilians' confidence in their democratic institutions. The first conviction was upheld by a circuit court panel and Brazil's Superior Court of Justice, which resulted in Lula being imprisoned and barred from running for a third presidential term in Lula was released from prison in November after Brazil's supreme court ruled that most individuals convicted of nonviolent crimes should remain free until they have exhausted the appeals process.
Nevertheless, Lula remains ineligible for elective office unless the convictions are overturned and ultimately may have to serve out the remainder of his sentences. Brazilian voters registered their intense dissatisfaction with the situation in the country in the elections.
He exercised little influence over policy and was best known for his controversial remarks defending the country's military dictatorship and expressing prejudice toward marginalized sectors of Brazilian society.
Nevertheless, his social media-driven campaign and populist, law-and-order message attracted a strong base of support. He outflanked his opponents by exploiting anti-PT and antiestablishment sentiment and aligning himself with the few institutions that Brazilians still generally trust: the military and the churches.
Bolsonaro's PSL also won the second-most seats in the lower house. Since Bolsonaro began his four-year term on January 1, , he has struggled to advance portions of his agenda due to cabinet infighting and the lack of a working majority in Brazil's fragmented congress, which includes 24 political parties.
Moreover, he generally has avoided negotiating the details of his proposed policies with legislators. Instead, Bolsonaro has sought to keep his political base mobilized by frequently taking socially conservative stands on cultural issues and verbally attacking perceived enemies, such as the press, nongovernmental organizations NGOs , and other branches of government. In November , for example, Bolsonaro abandoned the PSL after a series of disagreements with the party's leadership; he intends to create a new Alliance for Brazil party to contest future elections.
During its first year in office, the Bolsonaro Administration began implementing key aspects of its market-oriented ec onomic agenda. Although the Bolsonaro Administration has proposed additional measures to simplify the tax system, cut and decentralize government expenditures, and decrease compensation and job security for government employees, political parties may be reluctant to enact austerity measures in the lead-up to Brazil's October municipal elections.
The International Monetary Fund estimates that the Brazilian economy expanded by 1. Bolsonaro has had difficulty advancing the hard-line security platform that was the centerpiece of his campaign. The Brazilian congress has blocked Bolsonaro's proposal to shield from prosecution police who kill suspected criminals and has pushed back against Bolsonaro's decrees loosening gun controls.
Other Bolsonaro Administration proposals, including measures to modernize police investigations and impose stricter criminal sentences, were enacted in December Preliminary data suggest that security conditions in Brazil improved in , but the number of individuals killed by police in states such as Rio de Janeiro increased significantly. Anti-corruption efforts in Brazil have experienced a series of recent setbacks.
Although President Bolsonaro campaigned on an anti-corruption platform, he has repeatedly interfered in law enforcement agencies, potentially hindering investigations and calling into question the political independence of Brazilian institutions.
In September , Bolsonaro disregarded a norm in place since of selecting an attorney general from a shortlist approved by the public prosecutors' association.
Observers also have questioned changes Bolsonaro has made to Brazil's tax collection agency, financial intelligence unit, and antitrust regulator. At the same time, the Brazilian congress has been reluctant to adopt anti-corruption reforms and the supreme court has issued a series of rulings that could jeopardize convictions obtained in the Car Wash investigation and make it more difficult to investigate and prosecute corruption cases.
Many analysts argue there has been an erosion of democracy in Brazil under Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro also took steps to weaken the press, exert control over civil society, and roll back rights previously granted to marginalized groups.
The Brazilian military is now more involved in politics than it has been at any time since the end of the dictatorship. Some analysts maintain, however, that the military has had a moderating influence on the government.
Nevertheless, human rights advocates argue the president's statements and actions have fueled attacks against journalists and activists. Polls conducted at the conclusion of his first year in office suggest Brazilian public opinion toward Bolsonaro remains divided. Although findings vary, one recent study estimated the forest absorbs million tons of carbon dioxide per year and its biomass holds 76 billion tons of carbon—an amount equivalent to seven years of global carbon emissions.
Although rainforest covers most of the Legal Amazon, savanna Cerrado and wetlands Pantanal are present in portions of the region. The Legal Amazon was largely undeveloped until the s, when the military-led government began subsidizing the settlement and development of the region as a matter of national security. Partially due to those incentives, the human population in the Legal Amazon grew from 6 million in to 25 million in In , the Brazilian government adopted an action plan to prevent and control deforestation in the Legal Amazon.
Other Brazilian initiatives have sought to support sustainable development in the Amazon while limiting the extent to which the country's agricultural sector drives deforestation. In , the Brazilian government began conditioning credit on farmers' compliance with environmental laws; in , the government banned new sugarcane plantations in the Legal Amazon.
The Brazilian government also supported private sector conservation initiatives. Those included a voluntary agreement among most major soybean traders not to purchase soybeans grown on lands deforested after later revised to and a voluntary agreement among meatpackers not to purchase cattle raised on lands deforested in the Amazon after Deforestation has been trending upward in recent years, however, rising from a low of 1, square miles in to 3, square miles in the month monitoring period that ended in July see Figure 2.
Analysts have linked the increase in deforestation to a series of policy reversals that have cut funding for environmental enforcement, reduced the size of protected areas, and relaxed conservation requirements.
Figure 2. Deforestation in Brazil's Legal Amazon: Notes: Annual monitoring periods run from August to July e. Although changes that weakened Brazil's environmental policies began under President Rousseff and continued under President Temer, some analysts argue that the Bolsonaro Administration's approach to the Amazon has led to further increases in deforestation. Since taking office, his administration has lifted the ban on new sugarcane plantations in the Legal Amazon and called for an end to the soy moratorium.
It also has proposed measures to allow commercial agriculture, mining, and hydroelectric projects in indigenous territories, arguing that such economic activities will benefit those living in the region and reduce incentives for illegal deforestation. At the same time, Bolsonaro has questioned the Brazilian government's deforestation data and repeatedly criticized the agencies responsible for enforcing environmental laws.
The pinnacle event of my trip—a conference on China attended by almost Brazilian officers and civilians—highlighted how much the strategic environment of Latin America has changed, and with it the importance of Brazil in China-Latin American affairs.
Less known, however, is the fact that Brazil is increasingly becoming a significant military partner for China in the region. The experience was reportedly so positive that a delegation from the school traveled to China to discuss helping the PLA to set up its own school in the south of China.
Brazil—which has its own defense industry—has not bought large quantities of Chinese military equipment, as Venezuela , Ecuador, Bolivia and Peru have. But it has bought an Antarctic research ship from the Chinese, and Chinese defense companies are strong contenders for important Brazilian defense procurements. As the U.
Brazil accounts for approximately half the population, territory, and economic product of South America. Yet Brazil does not fit readily into the traditional U. Brazilians, like their U. But while senior U. The Supreme Court has taken a keen interest in allegations made against the president. Trump has consistently sought to raise the anti-China card as part of his reelection campaign, and this effort may have foreign policy implications, including for U.
In other words, policies that look good on paper but, in practice, are never enforced. If Brazil were to face Trump administration pressure, it might be more practical to feint publicly towards a harder line on China while its private sector commodity producers seek to export as much as possible, especially in the face of a severe global recession.
In addition, Brazil trades twice as much with China as with the United States, a trend accentuated by recent U. On the other hand, for the United States and Brazil, their international economic interests are not naturally aligned.
In many important agricultural and mineral commodity export markets, their economies are not complimentary, but rather in competition with one another. Brazil and U. This means that over time, despite an affinity between Bolsonaro and Trump, we should expect a reversion to the mean in U.
Related Books. Aspirational Power By David R. Interactive Global China Monday, September 30,
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